"Hierarchical Vintage Sparse PCA. Discussion on the paper by Rohe and Zeng", with Jeff Cai, Dan Yang, Linda Zhao, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B: Statistical Methodology, 2023,
State Ownership in China: An Equity Network Perspective, "The Arc of the Chinese Economy", with Jeff Cai, Xian Gu, Linda Zhao. edited by, Hanming Fang and Marshall W. Mayer (Forthcoming, Cambridge University Press, 2025)
Textual Factors: A Scable, Interpretable, and Data-driven Approach to Analyzing Unstructured Information. with Lin William Cong, Tengyuan Liang, Xiao Zhang (Forthcoming, Management Science, 2025)
Develop a theoretical framework and implementable algorithm for topic modelling to analyze unstructured information (text or audio) in a large scale way, and significantly enhance the economic interpretation.
Keywords: LLMs, Textual Factors, Topic Models, Representation Learning.
Network Regression and Supervised Centrality Estimation, with Jeff Cai, Ran Chen, Haipeng Shen, Dan Yang, and Linda Zhao (Conditionally Accepted, Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA), 2025)
Empirical networks are full of noise or measurement error which significantly bias estimation of network effect, we develop a semi-supervised framework to jointly debias the network effect estimation and denoise the observed network, and provide an asymptotic distribution for our estimation.
Keywords: Supervised Learning, Network Regression, Two-Stage Estimation, Measurement Errors in Networks.
The Network Effects of Agency Conflicts, with Rakesh Vohra and Yiqing Xing, (Reject&Resubmit, American Economic Review)
We develop a general framework incorporating endogenous action in the equity-holding network and various type of within-firm friction (Limited Ability, Default Cost, Interst Costs, and Moral Harzard) . We show that firm-level agency conflicts not only counter the role of network structure in the propagation of shocks but they can have a significant impact on system-wide behavior that differs from those predicted based on network structure alone. This implies that corporate governance can play an pivotal role in macro fluctuations.
Keywords: Network Effect, Macro Fluctuations, Agency Conflicts, Corporate Governance.
Ownership Network and Firm Growth - What Do Forty Million Companies Tell Us About the Chinese Economy? with Frankin Allen, Jeff Cai, Xian Gu, QJ Jun Qian, and Linda Zhao (Best Paper Award in CFRC2021), (Revise&Resubmit, Management Science)
Using the business registration data which covers a univeral firms registered in China. We document that ownership network play a pivotal role in promoting firm growth and develop a general equilibrium with ownership network, endogenous policy learning, and investment decision to quantify the findings.
Keywords: Equity-holding (Ownership) Networks, Learning in Networks, Firm Growth.
Tiered Intermediation in Equity-holding Networks, with Robert Townsend and Yu Shi (Finalists of Best Ph.D. Paper in MFA 2020, CICF, AEA, CICM, CFRC, NAES, MFA, MIT, IMF, UPENN, PHBS-IER Special Issue Conference (2024), Revise&Resubmit, Management Science)
Using Chinese business registry data, we construct a comprehensive firm-to-firm equity-holding network and demonstrate its role as a tiered financial intermediary. The network exclusively channels credit supply shocks from corporate shareholders to their subsidiaries, with no significant propagation between subsidiaries or in the reverse direction, and have a signicant impact on the bank credit reallocation. we develop a general equilibrium model incorporating an equity network, heterogeneous investment opportunities, and financial constraints, showing that tiered intermediation arises as an equilibrium outcome.
Keywords: Tiered Intermediation, Equity-holding Networks, Investment, Equity Financing
Optimal Assortment and Pricing via Generalized MNL Models with Novel Poisson Arrivals (with Ran Chen, Jeff Cai, Qitao Huang, Martin Wainwright, Linda Zhao, 2024 Econometric Society Interdisciplinary Frontiers (ESIF) conference on Economics and AI+ML (Cornell), INFORMS Annual 2024) (Invited Submission)
We develop an asymptotic optimal algorithm to jointly learning the assortment (customer preference) and time-varying customer arrival (market size), we provide a theoretical upper and lower bound for our optimal algorithm.
Keywords: Reinforcement Learning, Contextual Bandits, Joint Learning on Assortment and Pricing, On-line learning
ChatGPT and DeepSeek: Can They Predict the Stock Market and Macroeconomy (with Jian Chen, Guohao Tang, and Guofu Zhou, Submitted)
We systemically examine the predicability of ChatGPT and Deepseek on the stock market and its linkage to the macroeconomy
Keywords: ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Stock Market Predictability, Macro Forecast, Investor Attention, Limited Information Processing
Centralization or Decentralization - The Evolution of State Ownership in China, with Franklin Allen, Jeff Cai, Xian Gu, QJ Jun Qian, Linda Zhao (Best Paper Award in CICF2021, Submitted)
Link Complexity and Cross Predictability, with Guofu Zhou, Finalist of Best Paper in Financial Management Association 2020 (US)
Networks and Business Cycles, with Yucheng Yang
Automation-Induced Innovation Shift (with Lin William Cong, Yao Lu, and Hanqing Shi, AsianFA 2024, AEA 2025, CICF 2025, ).
Innovation Networks and M&A, (with Yuwei Cui, and Yao Lu)
The Carbon Risk Premium Revisited: The Role of Production Networks. (with Shubo Kou, Kai Li, Minghao Li, CICF 2025, SED 2025, MRS 2025)
Heterogeneous LLM Adoption for Research Writing: Initial Dynamics and Implications. (with Lin William Cong, Submitted)
Global Minds and Local Gains: A Talent Tale of US and China (with Hanming Fang, Xian Gu, Hanyi Yan,)
1. A Tale of Two Networks: Investments Like China
2. Novelty Premium and LLMs (come out soon, prelimary draft is available)
3. Competitive Narratives (with Shangjin Wei)
1. State Ownership in China: An Equity Network Perspective, "The Arc of the Chinese Economy", the University of Pennsylvania, 2023, with Jeff Cai, Xian Gu, Linda Zhao. Cambridge University Press, edited by, Hanming Fang and Marshall W. Mayer (to appear)
1. "Tiered Intermediation in Business Groups", with Robert Townsend and Yu Shi, (VoxChina, 2020)
2. "Centralization or Decentralization - the Evolution of State Ownership in China", with Franklin Allen, Jeff Cai, Xian Gu, Jun Qian (QJ), Linda Zhao (VoxChina, 2021)
3. "Centralization or Decentralization - the Evolution of State Ownership in China", with Franklin Allen, Jeff Cai, Xian Gu, Jun Qian, Linda Zhao (Stanford Chinese Economy Briefs, China's Economy and Institutions, 2024 )
