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Adair Turner, Chairman of the Institute of New Economic Thinking, Delivers Insights on the Role of Debt in Financial Instability in His Lecture “Debt, Stability and Development” at the Tsinghua Distinguished Speaker Forum on Finance in Tsinghua SEM

2016-04-19
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After the opening remarks and introduction, Turner begins by introducing his new book Debt and the Devil which contains his thoughts on the fundamental causes behind the historical financial crises’ and the slow recoveries following them. Turner relates that his consideration of these fundamental causes came from his work with the UK Financial Authority back in 2008 and the last 7 years of disappointing economic developments. According to recent IMF reports, the recent economic situation can be described as “subdued demand and diminished prospects” and Turner believes this is due to the growth in debt between 1950 and 2007. Despite this large amount of growth in debt, no concern was shown amongst theorists and economic experts. Turner explains that this was because of the positive views on debt’s role in developing countries’ economy. The assumption is: the more debt – the more growth. Meanwhile, monetary theorists simply ignored the growth of credit. The central banks tended to ignore its effects on leverage and focus on inflation. However, the use and purpose of this leverage has a direct impact on the economic cycles. Turner raises an example concerning the nature of the real estate industry, an industry in which banks are heavily involved. Cycles are not just one part of financial instability; they are the whole story. During these cycles, debt never really goes away – it just moves around. Companies that borrowed from the economy become determined to pay down their debt and the corporate sector switches to become a net saver of money. As it pays its debt, it cuts investment which then drives the economy into a recession. Investment levels decreases and tax revenues decreases causing the public sector to go into deficit and public debt to increase. This is happening all over the world since 2008 and recently, the debt to GDP ratio is climbing in emerging economies, especially corporate debt to GDP in China.