【主讲】 Malhar Nabar，世界货币基金组织亚太部经济学家

【主题】 目标，利率及中国城市居民储蓄

【时间】 2011-10-28（周五）12:00-13:15

【地点】 清华经管学院 伟伦楼404

【语言】 英文

【主办】 清华大学经济管理学院经济系

【Speaker】 Malhar Nabar, Economist, Asia and Pacific Department, IMF

【Topic】 Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China

【Time】 12:00-13:15, 2011-10-28, Friday

【Venue】 Weilun 404, Tsinghua SEM

【Language】English

【Organizer】Department of Economics

Abstract

This paper studies a panel of China’s provinces over the period 1996-2009 during which urban household saving rates increased from 19 percent of disposable income to 30 percent. It finds that the increase in urban saving rates is negatively associated with the decline in real interest rates over this period. This negative association suggests that Chinese households save with a target level of saving in mind. When the return to saving declines (increases), it becomes more difficult (easier) to meet a target and households increase (lower) their saving out of current disposable income to compensate. The results are robust across specifications and to the inclusion of additional variables. A main policy implication is that an increase in real deposit rates may help lower household saving and boost domestic consumption