【主讲】 刘凯，助理教授，挪威经济学院

【主题】 逆境中的人才：能力不匹配的循环以及于经济萧条时期毕业的长期影响

【时间】 2012-3-26（周一）14:00-15:30

【地点】 清华经管学院 伟伦楼404

【语言】 英文

【主办】 清华大学经济管理学院经济系

【Speaker】 Kai Liu, Assistant Professor, Norwegian School of Economics

【Topic】 Good Skills in Bad Times: Cyclical Skill Mismatch and the Long-term Effects of Graduating in a Recession

【Time】 14:00-15:30, 2012-3-26, Monday

【Venue】 Weilun 404, Tsinghua SEM

【Language】 English

【Organizer】 Department of Economics

Abstract

We propose that skill mismatch, defined as mismatch between the skills supplied by college graduates and skills demanded by hiring industries, is another important mechanism behind the persistent career loss from graduating in recessions. Using Norwegian micro data, we show that there is a strong counter-cyclical pattern of skill mismatch among college graduates entering the labor market, and initial labor market conditions have a declining but persistent effect on the probability of mismatch over the early career of these graduates. The effect is strongest and more persistent for graduates with low IQ scores and for graduates majoring in subjects leading to the private sector. We find that initially mismatched graduates (i.e., those who were mismatched to the wrong industry on their first jobs) are much more vulnerable to business cycle variations at the time of graduation. The careers of graduates who are matched to the right industry are largely immune from the negative impact of graduating in recessions. Our findings imply that skill mismatch could be an important driving force behind the long-term career loss portrayed by many studies.